UK fertility rates are the lowest ever recorded

The fertility rates in England, Scotland and Wales have dropped to record lows for the third consecutive year.

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the total fertility rate across England and Wales dropped to 1.41 in 2024, down from 1.42 the previous year, the lowest level recorded since comparable data began in 1938. Separate data released by National Records of Scotland showed an even lower fertility rate of 1.25. The fertility rate is the average number of children per woman across her reproductive lifespan. Keeping populations stable in developed countries without immigration requires a fertility rate of 2.1.

Greg Ceely, head of population health monitoring at the ONS, said: 'Fertility rates in England and Wales have been in overall decline since 2010. The total number of births increased last year, for the first time since 2021; but this was offset by population growth. As a result, fertility rates fell overall, and are now at the lowest rates on record'.

The average age of first-time mothers in England and Wales rose to 31 in 2024, up from 30.9 the year before and 29 two decades earlier. Fathers were on average 33.9, compared with 33.8 in 2023 and 32.1 in 2004. The largest drop in birth rates in England and Wales last year was among parents aged 25 to 29, while small increases were seen among mothers aged 30 to 34 and fathers in older age groups.

Melinda Mills, professor of demography and population health at the University of Oxford, told the Financial Times that the decline in birth rates is 'inherently linked to the general trend in postponement of parenthood'. She listed housing and childcare costs, uncertainty over employment, gender inequality, and difficulties combining work and family life among reasons people wait longer to start a family.

Politicians have voiced concern that the falling birth rate will leave fewer workers to fund an ageing population. In July, education secretary Bridget Phillipson said the trend had 'worrying repercussions' and pledged to make it easier for women to have children.

Sarah Norcross, director of PET, the Progress Educational Trust, said: 'The Government should be exploring how they can help people who would like a family to fulfil that dream. One way to do this would be improving access to NHS-funded fertility treatment. Many people are priced out of having the family they want because IVF in the private sector is beyond their reach'.